Share

Fed policy the enemy of gold bulls

London - Gold slid to its weakest since early January and silver to a four-year low on Monday as speculation that the Federal Reserve will start its rate-tightening cycle sooner than expected fuelled selling of precious metals.

Losses were limited as the dollar took a breather after hitting four-year highs against a currency basket on Friday, and European stocks fell. However, more weakness is on the cards as gold presses down towards its June 2013 low at $1 180, dealers said.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1 214.84 an ounce at 09:16 GMT, having earlier touched a low of $1 208.36. US gold futures for December delivery were down $1.20 an ounce at $1 215.40.

Silver hit its lowest since June 2010 at $17.30 an ounce, and was later down 0.6 percent at $17.71 an ounce.

"Clearly there are those out there, with the Dow at record highs, who believe that recovery is here or on its way, and that the next move in interest rates is going to be higher - it's a question of when, rather than if," Simon Weeks, head of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia, said.

"Overall the cycle is changing again. The all-time high for gold was back in 2011, and we haven't managed to make anything higher since then," he added. "If interest rates really do start to rise again, the producer community is going to be keener to sell."

The precious metals group has seen sharp losses in recent days as US stocks rallied to record highs and the dollar index hit a four-year peak on expectations the world's biggest economy will begin tightening rates sooner than expected.

Higher interest rates boost the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. A drop in rates to record lows during the financial crisis was a key factor sending gold prices to a record $1 920.30 an ounce in September 2011.

"Fed policy will continue to be the enemy of gold bulls," Deutsche Bank said in a weekly note. "In an environment where US long term real yields and the US dollar keep rising, gold prices will remain under pressure."

Gold erases gains for the year

Gold's recent losses have erased almost all of its 2014 gains, with the metal now up only 0.7% from last year, when it lost 28% of its value.

Investor interest has dipped. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), SPDR Gold Trust, fell 7.78 tonnes to 776.44 tonnes on Friday, its lowest since December 2008.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday also showed that hedge funds and money managers switched silver into a net short position for the first time since mid-June.

The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, spiked up to its highest since mid-2010 on Monday at 68.7 as silver underperformed.

"(Silver) continues to be in a downward channel currently, without any arguments for a sustained upward development," precious metals house Heraeus said in a note on Monday.

"ETF holdings have also experienced a small setback in the course of the past week. Instead of going bargain hunting, even Asia put itself on the selling side this morning."

Among other precious metals, spot platinum was down 0.5% at $1 326 an ounce, while spot palladium was down 0.8% at $803.50 an ounce.

We live in a world where facts and fiction get blurred
Who we choose to trust can have a profound impact on our lives. Join thousands of devoted South Africans who look to News24 to bring them news they can trust every day. As we celebrate 25 years, become a News24 subscriber as we strive to keep you informed, inspired and empowered.
Join News24 today
heading
description
username
Show Comments ()
Rand - Dollar
18.88
+0.3%
Rand - Pound
23.85
+0.2%
Rand - Euro
20.39
+0.2%
Rand - Aus dollar
12.32
+0.2%
Rand - Yen
0.12
+0.2%
Platinum
908.05
0.0%
Palladium
1,014.94
0.0%
Gold
2,232.75
-0.0%
Silver
24.95
-0.1%
Brent Crude
87.00
+1.8%
Top 40
68,346
0.0%
All Share
74,536
0.0%
Resource 10
57,251
0.0%
Industrial 25
103,936
0.0%
Financial 15
16,502
0.0%
All JSE data delayed by at least 15 minutes Iress logo
Company Snapshot
Editorial feedback and complaints

Contact the public editor with feedback for our journalists, complaints, queries or suggestions about articles on News24.

LEARN MORE
Government tenders

Find public sector tender opportunities in South Africa here.

Government tenders
This portal provides access to information on all tenders made by all public sector organisations in all spheres of government.
Browse tenders