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Bloemfontein - The South African economy and its consumers are doing better.
South Africans are again buying cars and electrical appliances. Those with slimmer budgets are spoiling themselves with smaller luxuries like cosmetics or chatting on their cellphones.
Despite higher petrol prices, the wheels are still turning and the volume of freight going through the country’s ports has increased.
This is evident from Sake24 and BoE Private Clients’ provincial barometers. Its indices are compiled from a great many data series and measure the economic pulse of five of South Africa’s provinces.
The overall indices of all five provinces rose in January this year compared with the same month last year. KwaZulu-Natal (11.6% up) performed best, followed by the Eastern Cape (10.1%), the Western Cape (9.4%), the Free State (5.9%) and Gauteng (5.8%).
But the country should not be too eager to see the next growth phase, warned Economists.co.za economist Mike Schüssler, the compiler of the provincial barometers.
Indications are that we are now experiencing a transition between recovery and a subsequent growth phase and it could take another couple of quarters for sectors like industry and construction to recover completely from the impact of the recession.
The stress index, which measures how difficult or easy it is to do business in a province, declined in all provinces other than the Free State, driven by lower inflation and a prime lending rate 14% down on a year ago.
Unemployment is the one stress factor that, according to Schüssler, is still hampering growth countrywide and is diverting the focus of government expenditure from infrastructure development to grants and social services.
The provinces’ government indices, which reflect spending by the local, provincial and national governments, grew year-on-year (y/y) in all five provinces, with KwaZulu-Natal (19.6% up) again leading the pack and the Eastern Cape (with 4.4%) showing the smallest increase.
The trade indices (representing all retailers and wholesalers as well as leisure businesses) of all five provinces performed 7% to 8% better than in January last year.
This was driven by car sales in particular, which Schüssler said had recovered well. The National Automobile Association of South Africa’s latest vehicle sales figures for February show a three-year high in passenger vehicle sales.
The construction sector, with the exception of that in the Free State (7.3% up), is currently under severe pressure and double-digit declines are being recorded.
Investors have little appetite for large construction projects like shopping centres and because of the sluggish recovery in the property sector fewer new houses are currently being completed, said Schüssler.
He expressed satisfaction at the good showing in the primary sectors of the economy, such as mining and agriculture, which both rose y/y.
The positive effect of these rises will filter through to other sectors, such as transport and manufacturing, and better growth can be expected in the next couple of quarters, he said.
- Sake24
South Africans are again buying cars and electrical appliances. Those with slimmer budgets are spoiling themselves with smaller luxuries like cosmetics or chatting on their cellphones.
Despite higher petrol prices, the wheels are still turning and the volume of freight going through the country’s ports has increased.
This is evident from Sake24 and BoE Private Clients’ provincial barometers. Its indices are compiled from a great many data series and measure the economic pulse of five of South Africa’s provinces.
The overall indices of all five provinces rose in January this year compared with the same month last year. KwaZulu-Natal (11.6% up) performed best, followed by the Eastern Cape (10.1%), the Western Cape (9.4%), the Free State (5.9%) and Gauteng (5.8%).
But the country should not be too eager to see the next growth phase, warned Economists.co.za economist Mike Schüssler, the compiler of the provincial barometers.
Indications are that we are now experiencing a transition between recovery and a subsequent growth phase and it could take another couple of quarters for sectors like industry and construction to recover completely from the impact of the recession.
The stress index, which measures how difficult or easy it is to do business in a province, declined in all provinces other than the Free State, driven by lower inflation and a prime lending rate 14% down on a year ago.
Unemployment is the one stress factor that, according to Schüssler, is still hampering growth countrywide and is diverting the focus of government expenditure from infrastructure development to grants and social services.
The provinces’ government indices, which reflect spending by the local, provincial and national governments, grew year-on-year (y/y) in all five provinces, with KwaZulu-Natal (19.6% up) again leading the pack and the Eastern Cape (with 4.4%) showing the smallest increase.
The trade indices (representing all retailers and wholesalers as well as leisure businesses) of all five provinces performed 7% to 8% better than in January last year.
This was driven by car sales in particular, which Schüssler said had recovered well. The National Automobile Association of South Africa’s latest vehicle sales figures for February show a three-year high in passenger vehicle sales.
The construction sector, with the exception of that in the Free State (7.3% up), is currently under severe pressure and double-digit declines are being recorded.
Investors have little appetite for large construction projects like shopping centres and because of the sluggish recovery in the property sector fewer new houses are currently being completed, said Schüssler.
He expressed satisfaction at the good showing in the primary sectors of the economy, such as mining and agriculture, which both rose y/y.
The positive effect of these rises will filter through to other sectors, such as transport and manufacturing, and better growth can be expected in the next couple of quarters, he said.
- Sake24
For business news in Afrikaans, go to Sake24.com.
For more news on the Sake24/BoE Private Clients barometers, go to www.fin24.com/barometer.
