SA and its neighbours brace for El Niño's wrath on maize production

Excessive heat and scant rains across SA in February have changed the outlook from positive to concerning for maize supplies at home and for neighbouring countries, according to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist for the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.

From the summer months at the end of 2023 and into January this year, the calamitous forecasts that the El Niño weather system would result in drought-like conditions across large portions of SA’s important crop-growing regions proved to be untrue. That was a relief for the outlook on food prices and inflation. But in a period of just four to five weeks, that’s shifted.

"The 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing. We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions," Sihlobo said. "Those good early-season rains led us to believe the country would have a decent harvest in the 2023/24 production season. But this view has now changed. We worry about possible poor harvests."