Oslo - A UN summit on climate change next week will test rich nations' willingness to fill a near-empty fund to help the poor, but pledges are likely to be far short of developing nations' hopes for $15bn in 2014.
Emerging nations say that cash for the Green Climate Fund (GCF), meant to help the poor with projects to curb rising greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to heat waves, floods and rising seas, is vital to combat global warming.
The UN. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wants more than 120 world leaders to make "bold pledges" about climate change at the 23 September summit in New York.
Many rich countries have indicated willingness to fund the GCF but German Chancellor Angela Merkel is the only leader so far to make a large contribution, pledging $1bn over four years in July.
Aid budgets
"A number of countries are working very hard to try to ... make the announcements in New York," said Hela Cheikhrouhou, head of the GCF which opened headquarters in South Korea in 2013.
"We think some of them will do so, and several more are likely to more broadly state their support," she said. A separate GCF donors' conference will be held in November.
Many rich nations are struggling to maintain aid budgets as they focus on spurring growth and jobs at home.
Before Germany's announcement, pledges to the GCF totalled just $55m from 12 nations, according to the World Bank. And no other rich nations are signalling vast new outlays.
Norway's prime minister Erna Solberg told Reuters that she would pledge 200 million crowns ($31m) at Ban's summit, for 2015 alone. That is less than many environmental groups have been hoping since Oslo is often among the most generous donors.
Squeeze
GCF funding is part of an increasing squeeze for developed nations, which set a goal in 2009 of channelling an annual $100bn from 2020 to help the poor cope with climate change, made up of funds from both private and public sources.
They agreed a "significant" share will go via the GCF.
Meena Rahman, of the Third World Network development group, said countries including the United States, France, Britain, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland, the Netherlands and Denmark indicated at a GCF meeting last week that they will make pledges this year, but not necessarily at Ban's summit.
Developing nations want promises of $15bn for the GCF in 2014. Peru, due to host a UN climate conference in December, has set a less ambitious target of $10bn.
Aid charity Oxfam said that indicative shares, if developed nations were to give $15bn, include $4.8 billion for the United States, $6bn for the European Union, $2.3bn for Japan and $600m for Canada.
Vulnerable communities
Developing nations want clear signs of increasing funds towards 2020 to encourage them to join a UN deal, due in late 2015 at a summit in Paris, to slow global warming.
"Climate finance is not only crucial for unlocking a deal, it is an indispensable part of bringing emissions down and helping vulnerable communities adapt," said Marlene Moses, of Nauru, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States.
Moses said the poor wanted clear signs of funds in New York.
The UN panel of climate experts says it is at least 95% probable that mankind is the dominant cause of global warming since 1950.
Many voters are doubtful, reckoning natural variations are to blame and complicating efforts to crack down.