Share

In reply to Max du Preez

Hey Max, howya doin'?

Let me start right up front - I agree with you, South Africa is NOT a failed state. I was in Zimbabwe a couple of weeks ago, and I have seen what a failed state looks like, first-hand, and it's not us.

But we're parlously close to ticking a great number of boxes that would qualify us for the epithet. This article sets out those factors.

The Media and Freedom of Expression

You are quite right. Our media is largely free to report as it sees fit. Newspaper offices are not firebombed, and journalists aren't called in for a chat with the shades-and-suits guys from BOSS.

But the current government has enacted new legislation, and (bizarrely) relied on apartheid-era legislation, to attempt to muzzle the dissemination of information. We have the new Protection of State Information (PoSI) Act, which only requires one scrawl of Zuma's pen to formally put into place. We have also seen the bandying about of "national key points" as a means of silencing criticism of the state. "You can't write about Nkandla, because it's an NKP."

More than that though, is the spin that various ANC soothsayers attempt to place on the malaise that besets society. The sumptuous swimming pool at Nkandla was called a fire pool. The jamming of mobile signal in parliament was said to be, alternately, the preservation of a no-fly zone above the house, and the prevention of the use of drones in the chamber. The ad hoc committee examining the Nkandla saga found that the president and his merry men had committed no wrong. Do they really believe we are that stupid?

There are two ominous factors happening in the wings. You get passive-aggressive statements from the likes of Buti Manamela, that (para.) "nobody has ended up in a bodybag (yet?) for criticising the government". And Siyabonga Cwele, the architect of PoSI, has been moved to Telecomms, where he can turn off the last bastion of unfettered distribution of information, the internet, with a phone call. Would he do so?

You see, it's all very well for Zuma to apologise for the jammed signal, or for Makhura to apologise for keeping the media out of the legislature, after the fact, and declare that it won't happen again. True media freedom would never have those impediments in the first place.

The Capture of State Institutions

I have written elsewhere, that Zuma owes many favours. The circle of people and bodies that have kept him in power and luxurious thatch, is large. And impatient. And will not receive their pound of flesh if Showerhead is axed, or worse, imprisoned.

To maintain the status quo, the Zuma bloc has set about capturing every state institution that poses any sort of threat. The Hawks, SARS, parliament, the SIU, the NPA, and now the IEC.

He has even undertaken the extraordinary step of traveling to Russia, ostensibly for a holiday, but in actual fact, to negotiate a trillion rand nuclear reactor deal. Why would the head of state manage what should be a commercial transaction? Because he needs to pay back favours, estimated to be of the order of a billion rand. In an arms deal of R40-billion, a billion in backhanders is hard to hide. But dead easy in R1-trillion worth of nukes, where it represents only 0.1%.

And in order to get away with such an audacious plan, he needs compliant allies. Ergo, the incompetent, incorrigible, and thoroughly unlikeable Tina Joemat Petterson was handed the Energy portfolio, when by rights, she should have been fired, and possibly even charged criminally.

Mac Maharaj can moan all that he likes that the nuke deal was only an enquiry, and the eventual project will be based on an open tender. But I present the following four facts that suggest otherwise:

1. The Russians proudly announced the conclusion of the deal, at the IAEA event in Vienna, shortly after Zuma's Moscow visit.

2. Other bidders were only invited to make representations, after the Russian announcement.

3. Nuclear power is only a component of the integrated energy plan from 2020 onwards. Corollary: even if awarded today, a nuclear plant would only deliver its first MW in 10+ years, thus is not a factor in overcoming the current energy shortage. So don't believe his rubbish if he starts waffling about load shedding.

4. Showerhead has become awfully pally with the Russians of late, at a time when the world regards Putin as a thug, and Russia itself as a near-pariah state.

What About Delivery?

Of course, the average South African cares nought about who is the head of SARS, nuclear deals, billion rand kickbacks, and Club Med Zululand. In fact, some even expect the prez to have a nice house, in the African tradition.

The poor family living in a township (or worse, informal settlement) wants a decent home, electricity, piped water and sewerage, decent health care, adequate physical security, decent education for their children, and so on. Really basic things, in the lowest levels of Maslow's pyramid.

To progress up the hierarchy of needs, they need jobs that are more than just menial. Decent work, with the opportunities for improvement.

The Zuma administration offers very little against this backdrop. Instead of creating an enabling environment, in which private enterprise can grow organically, and create jobs to sustain that growth, the civil service has exploded. 1 in 5 people in formal employment in SA today, work for the state.

SAA, which is bankrupt, and would be sold off hastily in any first-world country, has employed 2,500 more bodies than it did when it was last profitable. Eskom has swollen from 30,000 to its current 42,000, and they still couldn't commission Medupi on time. All so that Zuma can stand up and solemnly swear, that he has created jobs.

And Treasury has provided no answers as to how to fund it all. There is no growth to rely on, and as a result, personal taxes have been raised. The fiscal cliff looms. When sovereign ratings get junked, and the state is unable to borrow to fund its spending, it will turn to the time-honoured method of meeting obligations in the short term - the printing of money. Enter super-inflation, recession, and civil unrest. And idiotic knee-jerk measures to quell the riots, such as "evicting white farmers in the name of land restitution". Sound familiar?

Zuma and his crew do not care. They are leaving the mess for the next lot to clean up. (Or are they?)

In the meantime, the most vulnerable in society suffer the most. It's all well and good for you and me, Johnny Middle Class, to pay for private security and medical aid and education. The poor experience the worst in terms of crime, are given a seven-year wait for an operation at the local state hospital, and have to be satisfied with 0% matric pass rates at the most delinquent state schools.

In Conclusion Then...

To put it bluntly, we're in a shit state. We may not have lousy Malawi-style national roads, but there are many indicators that we may have, in a decade's time.

How many people are holding thumbs that at the end of the current administration, somebody competent will step in and sort things out? Is it the same level of desperation that ordinary Zimbabweans have, that The Old Man will become an ancestor, and things will change?

What if, as per the Stephen Grootes scenario, Julius and his crew of beret-wearing muppets are sweet-talked by Gweezy and Baleka, into accepting a deputy presidency and all sorts of benefits, in exchange for changes to the constitution? Changes that would permit a third term, and the wiping out of Chapter 9 bodies that are meant to provide the checks and balances? All in the name of preserving the status quo, for Number One and his band of mates. And screw the other 50-million.

Signal jamming in the house today, failed state tomorrow? I wouldn't bet against it.

We live in a world where facts and fiction get blurred
Who we choose to trust can have a profound impact on our lives. Join thousands of devoted South Africans who look to News24 to bring them news they can trust every day. As we celebrate 25 years, become a News24 subscriber as we strive to keep you informed, inspired and empowered.
Join News24 today
heading
description
username
Show Comments ()
Voting Booth
Do you think corruption-accused National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula will survive a motion of no confidence against her?
Please select an option Oops! Something went wrong, please try again later.
Results
No, her days are numbered
41% - 432 votes
Yes, the ANC caucus will protect her
59% - 614 votes
Vote
Rand - Dollar
18.96
-0.1%
Rand - Pound
23.92
-0.1%
Rand - Euro
20.43
+0.0%
Rand - Aus dollar
12.35
-0.0%
Rand - Yen
0.13
-0.1%
Platinum
908.05
+1.2%
Palladium
1,014.94
+1.3%
Gold
2,232.75
-0.0%
Silver
24.95
-0.1%
Brent Crude
87.00
+1.8%
Top 40
68,346
0.0%
All Share
74,536
0.0%
Resource 10
57,251
0.0%
Industrial 25
103,936
0.0%
Financial 15
16,502
0.0%
All JSE data delayed by at least 15 minutes Iress logo
Editorial feedback and complaints

Contact the public editor with feedback for our journalists, complaints, queries or suggestions about articles on News24.

LEARN MORE