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The shocking and quite frankly disturbing news coming out of South Africa recently cuts deep. Xenophobia has reared it’s ugly head again. As a Zimbabwean with South African citizenship who voted in the 2014 elections, some alarm bells have been ringing in my head. What follows are some personal musings that I thought I would share.
(I must stress from the outset that I would love for South Africa to be a shining example on the African continent - a diverse hub for business worldwide).
Although authorities seem to have stamped out the horrific Xenophobic attacks for now, my fear is that the ‘peace’ is artificial and will be short-lived. As the middle/upper class rich and privileged bury their heads back in their daily happenings, life remains the same for many millions of impoverished South Africans. My concerns centre around how this rejected section of our population is going to be looked after over the next 5-10 years. Crucially, what is going to change for the (very large number of) people living in poverty between now and the elections in 2019? My humble opinion is ‘nothing’.
Eskom continues to cripple industry, and this will result undoubtedly result in further unemployment and definitely no new jobs (Net Jobs). In fact, South Africa has one of the highest unemployment rates between 15-24 year olds in the world: a staggering 54% according to World Bank data. I see this age group in particular as somewhat equivalent to South Africa’s ‘War Vets’ - the kind that we saw in Zimbabwe. They are the ‘born frees’ who weren’t born so free. These kids mean business. And by business I mean anything that they can get for free. After all, they are only following the example set by their leaders.
To further compound the dire unemployment figures, and no doubt a contributory factor to them, is the actuality that South Africa's population is not as well educated as Zimbabwe's. It was less than 2 weeks ago when I read that South Africa ranked the worst for quality of maths and science education IN THE WORLD according to the World Economic Forum. 78% of schools do not have libraries or computers according to Unicef, and a low quality of teaching leads to poor performance. Coupled with this, South Africa has a violent crime rate about 3 times higher (per 100,000) than that of Zimbabwe; both very dangerous realities which mean that any 'revolution' in South Africa will be markedly more prolonged and violent than it was in Zimbabwe - once again - in my opinion.
Continual misdirection of public funds and a poor record of service delivery is making people increasingly more desperate. Imagine not having electricity or running water for 20 years. It would be unthinkable to all the readers here. It doesn’t help when R2 billion is spent on private jets as this causes more frustration for people who currently do not have a roof over their head, food on the table, toilets, the list goes on… Don’t get me started on tenderpreneurship - this would require an entire article itself. Every million lost is a school not built, a home not built, a medical facility without supplies, and so the list goes on.
Heavy handed police and army raids on hostels may be counter productive. Under what pretence did the cops think it was okay to raid this men’s hostel in Jeppestown? Did they have hard evidence suggesting criminal activity? No arrests were made, and they could very well have targeted innocent (and possibly unemployed) youth to show that the government was ‘dealing with xenophobia’. Those young men could now be feeling even more bitter and resentful at the treatment they received. And rightly so; after all they should be treated as innocent until proven guilty.
So, come 2018 when politicians begin to think about campaigning for votes again - with a continuing record of poor service delivery and nothing changing for the average person - where are they going to get them quickly? Will Malema have gained more support by then? Without a doubt; yes. Will the ANC consider more radical policies to win back votes lost to the EFF? Potentially; yes. Taking stock of the above it looks like SA may be in for a few gloomy decades. History has a funny way of repeating itself (compare numerous near identical articles detailing the story of Zimbabwe unfolding since 1997-ish).
However... Having said that, and in closing, a big political shift and more powerful leadership - that actively works to eradicate corruption and (more importantly) rampant poverty - may totally alter the way the ship sails. Let's hope South Africa manages to direct itself towards calmer oceans as it weathers the current storm.
*Disclaimer - I am currently writing this from sunny London, which therefore means I am ‘not allowed’ to analyse or offer opinion on events in South Africa (according to certain built in defense mechanisms used by South Africans who still reside in South Africa).
