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The Lesser of Two Evils
Dear Mr Maimane and the Leadership of the Democratic Alliance
Last week’s local government elections captivated the country and showcased to the world South Africa’s beautifully robust democracy. The DA made impressive gains amongst the electorate, snatching Nelson Mandela Bay from the ANC and unseating in the ruling party from two of our biggest and most important metros – Tshwane and Johannesburg. A new kid rocked up and joined the fray throwing the political landscape off its axis. The EFF took a mere 11% of the vote but find themselves in a startlingly powerful bargaining position. Let’s look at these 3 metros quickly from a citizen’s viewpoint:
Nelson Mandela Bay – The run-up to the elections slated this metro as the DA’s best chance of winning outside of the Western Cape. So much so, in fact, that most political analysts agreed that should the DA fail to win here, it’d be touted as a disaster for the party. So win they did. They didn’t secure an outright majority, but the 6% gap and 47% victory total put the DA in a position to forge a coalition government with the UDM and smaller parties without including the new kid EFF at all.
Tshwane – Home to the capital and Johannesburg’s less-vaunted neighbour, the DA’s victory in Tshwane surprised many as they came in with 43% of the vote to the ANC’s 41. An ANC mayoral candidate crisis, featuring violent protests in the run up, raised a few eyebrows and quite possibly opened the door for the DA to sneak in. And that they did.
Johannesburg – Africa’s economic powerhouse, our biggest city and the LGE2016’s gold medal, Joburg kept us on the edge of our seats with delayed results, a neck and neck race to the end and a strong EFF performance. The ANC’s failure to secure an outright majority summed up their elections in general – they’d haemorrhaged significant support across the country and it showed. Outperforming the DA by 44% - 38% another leak sprung in the ruling party’s slowly sinking ship with a much reduced majority vote and no outright win.
We now find ourselves waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the coalition talks, most prominently between the DA skinny white kid on his smartphone and the chubby new EFF kid who’d just help the white boy smack the neighbourhood bully around.
The media’s been full of rumours, leaks, “malicious statements” and speculation but we know nothing for certain about what’s going on behind those closed doors. Many pundits have been speculating that DA-EFF coalitions in Nelson Mandela Bay, Tshwane and Johannesburg may be the most likely outcome. This would reduce the ANC from outright majority control of 7 of the countries 8 metros to a meagre 3. This would also represent a staggering 50% drop in ANC Metro control. This unprecedented reversal in the political landscape is yet to be fully understood. A discussion for early 2019 perhaps?
Paying close attention to conspicuously muted reports of late, I’ve been preoccupied with the apparent prospect of an EFF run municipality in Tshwane. Working backwards, that’d mean a mutual DA-EFF coalition across the Jukskei leaves the DA in charge in Johannesburg and Holimisa gets left out in the cold in PE. With the DA running the show cleaning up the previous administration’s mess (yes Danny, now go deal with FIFA) and the EFF enjoying “goodwill support” from the DA, that means that the DA would control 3 metros , the ANC 4 (providing they hold onto Ekurhuleni) and the EFF 1. Ask Mmusi Maimane if he’d taken that on 2 August, I guarantee he’d have said yes.
There seems to be a scenario that nobody is talking about....a DA-ANC coalition in Gauteng. Before you reel in disgust at this prospect. Consider this. The EFF garnered only 11% in the elections. 2 in 20 South Africans who actually voted lent their support to the EFF, 5 in 20 the DA (26%) and over half (54%) to the ANC. Yet here the EFF faces the prospect of governing one metro and having a big say in two others. Off of just 11%! The DA’s disdain for the ANC, coupled with the euphoria of successful elections I think is clouding their judgement somewhat. They’ve gone from governing one metro, to gaining the most votes in 3 of them and possibly unseating the ANC in another. There’s a price to be paid for this, EFF governance in Tshwane. People seem to have forgotten specifically what the Fighters are demanding. Land redistribution without compensation, broad-spectrum nationalisation and a relentless, racially tinged war on “white monopoly capitalism”. I’m no economist, but I’m smart enough to know that the implementation of the aforementioned ideologies would be terrible for our frail economy. Be careful, DA of letting the new kid screw up the dynamics of the block, you’ve done well, don’t let him boss you around too. You’d be surprised at what a 3rd element can do in the political future, you’ve just proven it yourselves.
Please let us consider the lesser of two evils here.
Shouldn’t the DA think about giving Joburg (back) to the ANC? Parks Tau has done a sterling job over there and let’s be honest, is significantly more popular than Mr Mashaba. After all, they did beat you there and you won in Tshwane...fair is fair. Take Tshwane with NMB and cut the dangerously unpredictable EFF out of everything. Bring Mr Holimisa back in in PE, govern there. Instil Solly as mayor in Tshwane and govern there. Focus your resources on these two. Prove to SA that you can govern effectively outside of Slaapstad. Joburg can wait, for now. Don’t be greedy DA, 2019 is around the corner. Restrict the EFF to clowning around in parliament. Kick the new kid off the block, remind the bloodied bully you’re on an equal footing with him now and let’s do this thing....I’m rooting for a two-horse race in 2019, not 3.
I really hope it’s not too late.
With kindest regards and hopeful ambition,
An English speaking white guy from Durban living in Tshwane with no political experience. Influenced by the media, the petrol attendant’s views and my own red wine-muddled thoughts at 2am
