Publications
Partners
(Make political friends or lose the opportunity) time for marriages of convenient
This year (2016) local election will most likely become another nightmare for smaller parties. I however foresee more victories for the likes of EFF and DA. ANC will still win more municipalities, but this time with small margins compared to last elections. In certain municipalities we are more likely to see the coming-back or re-emergence of coalition government.
The biggest losers in this local election will be the small parties such as UDM, PAC, and COPE etc. These parties have little to contribute and gain from this year’s election because the competition seems to have shifted between three parties (ANC, EFF and DA). Small parties should just accept the fact that they are small fishes in a big ocean like South African political system. Yes, they served an important purpose of adding to opposition, but with the EFF and DA in frond, more people who are seeking change from ANC will more likely vote EFF or DA more than they can put their trust on small parties.
The biggest winner in this election will most likely be EFF followed in second place by the DA. ANC and the rest of smaller political parties will most likely loose votes. EFF as the new kid on the block will appeal to young people and particularly new voters who want to see changes in Government. Not only will the EFF gain more votes in this election, but it will also play a big role in forming coalition governments in different municipalities. We will be waiting to see who the EFF will agree to befriend as a coalition partner between the ANC and DA.
The DA on the other side will most properly become the second winner, both in votes increase and government. DA is the only party in RSA to have seen votes increase since 1994 elections. This trend will certainly continue but this time with small percentage. The DA will still be second to ANC and second to EFF in vote increment.
The ANC will still win more municipalities, but this time it will win by small margins compared to last elections. The emergence of EFF will be the biggest challenge the ANC had to face since 1994 elections. What is more challenging for the ANC is that the EFF is challenging ANC’s hegemony and dominance in certain municipalities that have never been a problem to the ANC. If EFF will agree to do coalitions with other opposition parties, ANC might lose certain municipalities to coalition governments.
This year’s elections will be a test for whether South Africa is ready for coalition politics or not. We will be waiting to see whether the opposition parties will gang-up (form coalition) against ANC or whether the ANC will be able to divide the opposition by making coalition with certain small parties. This will be the year of coalition government. It is inevitable that coalition politics are here to re-emerge in RSA. Political parties must make friends or loose friends to other political marriages of convenient.
Mashabela K Nicholas- is the author of the two books (“MIRROR OF HISTORY” and “ROAD TO RIGHT”).
