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Thumbsucking or science? Polls under scrutiny
Polling, which has been around since the 1930s, came in for a lot of scrutiny after the 2016 US presidential election when Donald Trump secured the presidency instead of Hilary Clinton in a shock win. I say shock because all polls had predicted Clinton's victory in the lead-up to the election.
South Africa is a little newer to polling, with it first coming to the fore in the transition from apartheid to democracy.
Ahead of the 2024 elections, interest in polling has peaked because after 30 years at the helm, the ANC looks set to lose its majority for the first time. This has led to questions of what a national coalition government could look like.
But should we believe polls, given that there are often issues with methodology and questions asked, and there is a margin of error, as we saw in the 2016 US Presidential election?
In this week's Friday Briefing, we consider whether opinion polls tell us something useful and interesting or are they just noise.
The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa's Ebrahim Fakir argues that our public debate requires a far more nuanced understanding of political dynamics than the faux realities painted by opinion polls.
News24's in-depth writer, Muhammad Hussain, sits down with three pollsters who explain that polls are momentary snapshots that reflect public opinion at a specific time.
Finally, analyst Mpumelelo Mkhabela reflects specifically on the ANC's reaction to the recent polls and what the party has done in light of these figures in an attempt to win voters over ahead of 29 May.
We hope this week's edition gives you more insight into the world of polling ahead of the upcoming election.
Best,
Vanessa Banton
Opinions editor.
Opinion polls have their uses. They also have their (many) abuses. And abusers
Polls have the tendency to trivialise issues, and whatever limited insights they offer are compromised by their inherent limitations, methodological biases, and susceptibility to manipulation, argues Ebrahim Fakir.
Election polls are not the gospel but are important for a snapshot of where we are going
Experts and research foundations use polls to track trends over time, offering insights into potential shifts in political landscapes and voter preferences. Muhammad Hussain speaks to three pollsters to understand whether polls can be regarded as a definitive prediction of election outcomes.
Beyond the numbers: Are polls signalling ANC's demise mere speculation?
The ANC hasn't said whether it agrees with the findings of the various elections polls, but the behaviour of its leaders, writes Mpumelelo Mkhabela, suggests that they are taking the warnings, which are consistent with the ANC's own previous assessment, seriously.
