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Durban- ANC delegates across the country will gather in a few days to cast their vote in what seems as the biggest event in South African history since 1994. The highly contested presidential election race between Deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and former chair of the African Union, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has drawn the eyes of investors, ordinary South Africans and rating agencies as they will be watching closely to see who becomes victorious.
The presidential election comes at a time where South Africa is faced with major economic challenges, elevated levels of corruption and high political instability.
Even though Deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa is leading the numbers in terms of branch nominations, we need to be very cautious. It would be very reckless for one to say that he has won the race by just looking at branch nominations because numerous factors need to be taken into consideration. Branch nominations are made as a collective, but when it comes to voting on the day, each person has the right to cast their vote, privately, based on which comrade they prefer, without fear of intimidation.
One must not forget about Mpumalanga who nominated ‘Unity’ as their preferred candidate. There is no ‘Unity’ candidate that will be listed on the ballot papers, so when voting commences, the delegates from Mpumalanga will have to vote for one of the six candidates. It is correct to say that Mpumalanga delegates have a huge role to play in the election process because they are the second largest group of delegates that will be sent to participate in the election process.
The leader that will be elected will have a tough task of ensuring that divisions within the party come to an end. Campaigning season, for the 2019 general elections, is set to begin early next year so if the ANC still wants to maintain a total average of 60% votes, they need to be united as ever. Should this not be done, the ANC will face a tough time in the 2019 general elections and will find themselves in an analogous situation as the 2016 local government elections.
There are 5 main questions that need to be answered once a new ANC president has been elected:
1. Will President Jacob Zuma call it a day; to avoid having two centres of power?
2. Will there still be an inquiry into state capture?
3. Will some cabinet ministers still occupy their positions?
4. What will rating agencies have in store for South Africa?
5. How will the markets react?
Who will emerge victorious? I guess we’ll have to wait and see!
