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South Africans older than 60 may face many more months at home under proposed "risk-adjusted" lockdown rules from 1 May, if the projected coronavirus peak indeed hits the country around September.
President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a raft of measures on Thursday to open the economy and sectors of society under a new, five-level alert system.
He said: "When the country moves to Level 4 on 1 May, those who are elderly, and those with underlying conditions, must remain at home and take additional precautions to isolate themselves."
Cabinet ministers are due to unpack the various implications of all the new rules, which will be gazetted sometime this week after public comment.
If finalised, these measures for the elderly would apply to effectively between 7-10% of the population and up to six million of the country's residents, according to census data.
Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma on Saturday said the "elderly" were categorised as people aged 60 and older.
What do the various draft plans show for work and personal movement for people older than 60?
Personal movement
According to the draft framework for sectors released by government on Saturday, elderly people were encouraged at all alert levels to prioritise their health when it came to personal movement.
From Levels 2 to 5, the most severe of the levels, "elderly and persons with comorbidities are encouraged to self-isolate and only leave home for exceptional reasons", the schedule said.
At Level 1, the most relaxed of the levels, it reads "elderly and persons with comorbidities are encouraged to take additional precautions when leaving home".
Work
With regards to work, government confirmed on Saturday that its stance for the elderly is: "Workers above the age of 60, as well as workers with comorbidities, should be offered a work-from-home option or remain on leave after engagement with employers and the UIF."
Ramaphosa's statement regarding the elderly this week spoke only of the conditions under the looming Level 4.
But, earlier this week, a document titled the "Risk-adjusted strategy for economic activity" was leaked, which was confirmed by the presidency as authentic, but subject to change.
Page 16 of the draft document said this work stance would be "applicable across all levels".
If gazetted, this would mean South Africans aged 60 and older may not be able to return to work in person under all five "levels", subject to a change in the rules governing alert levels.
Their continued work situation would depend on their employers' ability to provide work-from-home or leave options.
How will the government determine the different levels?
On Saturday, Dlamini-Zuma said the government would examine the data on a weekly basis, News24 reported.
"We'll be looking at data on a weekly basis. If there is no dramatic change in the data, there will be no change [in the level of the lockdown]," she said.
According to Dlamini-Zuma's presentation, they consider the following to determine what the alert level would be:
- Rate at which the proportion of the population tested is increasing (higher is better).
- Rate at which the proportion of positive tests is increasing (lower is better).
- Rate of increase in fixed and makeshift hospital beds in both public and private sectors per 1 000 population (higher is better).
- Rate at which the proportion of hospital beds being utilised for Covid-19 is increasing (lower is better).
All four measures will change over time and will influence the level at which the country, a province, or district will be classified.
How long could these measures be in effect
Asked how long this rule could apply to the elderly, health department sources said as soon as the infection rate declined sufficiently.
Globally, this has been identified in many countries as a ratio of one – meaning one infected person infects no more than one other person.
Various health experts have predicted South Africa's "peak" may only be in September. This could mean the elderly could have to remain at home for at least the next five months.
This period would also coincide with South Africa's winter.
In the course of this week, the final drafts will be finalised and gazetted once the public has commented.
What it will likely mean, though, is that South Africans older than 60 will likely be confined to the safety of their homes for much longer than the rest of the population, leaving only for essential needs.
- Additional reporting by Paul Herman and Jan Gerber
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