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- Eskom says that load shedding will likely be limited to Stage 2 over winter, and in a worst-case scenario, Stage 5.
- The country has had 30 days without load shedding, which CEO Dan Marokane said is due to improvements in the reliability of the fleet.
- Spend on diesel for Open Cycle Gas Turbines in April was roughly half that for the same month last year.
- For more financial news, go to the News24 Business front page.
Eskom has not ruled out load shedding during the winter months, but said it would likely be limited to Stage 2.
Stage 2 has been given as the base case - meaning that for the most part, load shedding is expected to be contained within Stage 2 - while the worst-case scenario sees load shedding escalating to Stage 5.
The power utility's executives on Friday provided an update on the winter outlook, following 30 consecutive days without load shedding.
Chief executive Dan Marokane described this as a milestone, given the past two years when the energy crisis intensified.
By comparison, in 2023, South Africans were load shedding-free for 30 days in total.
Marokane said it was worth noting the 30-day mark as a motivation for staff to repeat this performance. He said it reflected the progress of the Generation Recovery Plan, which has been in place since last year - and has been focused on improving the reliability of the fleet.
According to Eskom, unit trips have declined 19%, and unplanned breakdowns also dropped 9% since last year.
This has meant the frequency and intensity of load shedding declined.
For sceptics who think the utility is burning more diesel to power its Open Cycle Gas Turbines, Marokane said that the 30 days without load shedding had been achieved with diesel spending being 50% of the budget:
According to Eskom's presentation, spend on diesel for April 2023 was R3.1 billion. By comparison, data as at 22 April 2024 shows spend was around R1.4 billion.
He emphasised that the improvement in generation performance has been due to progress in the maintenance programme.
The budget for maintenance is about R11 billion, noted Bheki Nxumalo, group executive for generation. Counting that, along with major refurbishments of power plants, sees the capital expenditure for the Generation Recovery Plan to amount to R30 billion per annum.
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Eskom is entering this winter period on a slightly better footing than last year, with unplanned losses being 1 000 MW lower, said Marokane.
South Africans faced load shedding between Stages 2 and 4 last winter and "occasionally" Stage 6 last year. Unplanned losses averaged at 16.5GW.
This winter, apart from a decrease in unplanned breakdowns at six priority stations (Tutuka, Majuba, Kusile, Kendal, Matla and Duvha), there is the benefit of Kusile's units 1 to 3 being online.
This year, the aim is to have unplanned losses average 14-15.5GW. Peak demand is expected to average 22.2GW.
Elections
Eskom has also entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) to ensure adequate plans are in place for electricity supply.
"We are working with the IEC to make sure that from a planning point of view, we have adequate plans to enable them to successfully deliver an election," said Monde Bala, group executive for distribution.
Responding to questions about the MoU, Marokane said there is nothing untoward about such collaborations of national importance.
Bala also echoed that this is a standard process to follow for a major national event. "We want to make sure the event goes through as hassle-free as possible. I would imagine that the IEC has similar MOUs with other major role players, such as the telcos and people that provide data," he added.
Bala said the aim is to ensure that from an emergency response point of view, Eskom has its ducks in a row.
