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- South Africa's maize triangle is projected to have the highest crop yield since 1960.
- Below-average rainfall in most of the region could result in 20 million people facing starvation between January and March next year.
- Zimbabwe will rely on Russian grain gifts early next year.
While South Africa recorded its second-highest maize harvest since 1960, in the "maize triangle" provinces of Free State, Mpumalanga, and the North West, the country could find itself strained, just like a majority of SADC countries that are projected to be food insecure next year, stretching to 2025.
In September, South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) announced that farmers were expected to harvest 6% more maize in the 2022–2023 season compared with the previous season.
Tanzania is another country expected to have a bumper harvest.
Zambia was fortunate in that there is enough maize carryover from the previous harvest to meet the expected 25.2% drop in maize production due to a decrease in area planted from 1.69 million hectares last season to 1.51 million hectares this season.
However, the effects of El Niño, a negative climate and economic cycle that can last between nine and 12 months, will be greatly felt in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia.
According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FewsNet), "domestic deficits will continue to be met through sourcing maize from regional markets," meaning that South Africa and Tanzania would be the regional sources for countries intending to import maize.
For countries such as Zimbabwe, grain gifts from Russia will come in handy, as the latter announced that a consignment was already on the way to Zimbabwe.
Poor microeconomic activity in Malawi and Zimbabwe is projected to be a major driver, pushing many into starvation.
"Furthermore, this shock (El Niño) follows localised below-average harvests in 2023 and poor macroeconomic conditions in Malawi and Zimbabwe.
FewNet said:
FewNet also said over 20 million people will be in need of
food assistance during the January-to-March 2024 peak of the lean season.
Although, in contrast to other regions of the continent, southern Africa is not a hotspot for climate insecurity, climate change is causing livelihood and food insecurity, displacement and migration, and increasing competition for land and water resources.
With that in mind, FewNet observed that many families would struggle to cope and would be driven towards "negative coping strategies in order to minimise food consumption gaps amid high staple food prices and limited purchasing power."
The News24 Africa Desk is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation. The stories produced through the Africa Desk and the opinions and statements that may be contained herein do not reflect those of the Hanns Seidel Foundation.
