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The struggling South African army will be hard pressed to make a meaningful contribution to a planned new regional force that is supposed to bring about peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
With only a fraction of the air force's helicopters still able to fly and some 2600 South African soldiers already deployed in the DRC and Mozambique on peacekeeping missions, it is now time for countries such as Zambia, Namibia and Angola to contribute, says Stephanie Wolters, senior researcher at the South African Institute for International Affairs.
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The Southern African Development Community (SADC) wants the new force to be deployed by the end of September, but there is still no clarity on the exact composition of the brigade of 5 000 soldiers.
Troop-contributing countries must bear all expenses themselves for the first three months, after which they will be compensated proportionately for serviceable vehicles and soldiers.
The planned regional force is supposed to crack down on the M23 rebels in the DRC in the run-up to the country's elections in December. The current East African Development Community's power, which was meant to get the rebels under control in the past year, will withdraw in early September.
The M23 is supported by Rwanda, and the Congolese government has accused the East African force of being too gentle with the rebels precisely because of Rwanda's involvement.
There is also a UN intervention force in the DRC to which South Africa contributes 1100 soldiers.
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The regional force must work with the UN force within a complicated structure, but with its own commander who is not accountable to the UN. Moreover, political and military efforts must be coordinated by the African Union (AU).
In May, SADC leaders approved the establishment of the regional force during a meeting in Windhoek. Last week, countries had to indicate who could contribute what, but these details are not yet known.
According to Wolters, Angola and Botswana have the best equipped air forces to contribute aircraft.
The estimated budget for the regional force is around $554 million, but this money has yet to be found. The deployment is at present expected to take a year.
Member states must negotiate with allies elsewhere in the world to contribute to the deployment. Wolters says she cannot see how any of the major powers will support the force financially. Ultimately, the biggest financial burden will therefore rest on the contributing countries, and South Africa can certainly not afford this.
Military expert Helmoed-Römer Heitman says just 5 000 soldiers with not much air support will hardly have any effect in the deep-rooted Congolese civil war.
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As it is, South Africa could not even fulfil its obligations in Mozambique. It finally took the additional parallel force of Rwanda in that country to contain the Muslim insurgents.
The South African defence budget for the current financial year has been reduced by R500 million.
According to the latest submissions from Krygkor and Denel to the parliamentary committee on defence, only two of the air force's 11 Rooivalk attack helicopters are serviceable.
Of the two Oryx helicopters assigned to the Mozambique deployment, only one is serviceable. Of the five in the DRC, two are unserviceable, but even the serviceable ones cannot fly because the pilots' essential competency training has deteriorated to such an extent that they are no longer allowed to fly. The Red Hawks that were in the DRC were withdrawn because Denel no longer has the money to maintain them.
According to Krygkor's submission, only six of the air force's 39 Oryx helicopters are serviceable, largely due to budget shortfalls on the air force's side and capacity shortfalls on Denel's side to carry out the maintenance. Denel also has no more spare parts in stock to replace anything in the helicopters.
According to Heitman, the army is preparing an artillery component to have "something" for the DRC regional force. This battery of about 175 soldiers will probably use 20mm mortars, as it is more difficult to deploy the G5 guns with the air force's limited cargo aircraft capacity.
A retired general says:
"The army and the politicians do not understand how a peace intervention is carried out.
"You can't just stick people or equipment down and hope it means something while the politicians pat each other on the back. Especially not against a well-organised and well-equipped rebel force like the M23."
