Publications
Partners
2024 Election brief: SA's biggest turning point in 30 years
In case you have been living under a rock, the 2024 elections are being billed as one of the most crucial in the country's 30 years of democracy.
For years, the ANC's dominance at the polls has been steadily declining. This came to a head for the party in 2021, when it received just 46% of the vote in the municipal elections – a drop from the 2019 national and provincial election, where the ANC got 57.5% of the vote.
Recent surveys have indicated that the ANC could have a hard time holding onto its dominance and might not achieve the 50% of votes needed to stay in power.
Just over 26 million voters are registered to vote in the 2024 election, with 568 374 registering for the first time in November 2023. There will be one final voter registration weekend in February.
The major concern, however, is whether people will turn out to vote in the face of the country's socio-economic challenges.
Vote turnout over the years has also seen a steady decline. In 1994, the voter turnout was 86.6%, while just over 66% turned up for the last national election in 2019. The 2021 voter turnout was only 45.86%. With low numbers of first-time voters registering, 2024 could see even further decline.
If this trend continues, fewer people will be actively involved in shaping democracy in South Africa.
In this week's Friday Briefing, former member of the Press Gallery Association in Parliament and News24's assistant editor of investigations Pieter du Toit takes a hard critical look at the ANC, the DA, the EFF and the IFP in a series of analysis columns ahead of the 2024 elections. He also turns his sights on the Multi-Party Charter and whether they will be able to achieve what they have set out to do.
If Du Toit's analysis is anything to go by, you better tighten your seatbelt, as we are in for a bumpy 2024 election ride.
Best,
Vanessa Banton
Opinions editor.
ANC decline gathers pace, final fall from power now only question
The ANC reached the zenith of its support in 2004 when it secured almost 70% of national support. But those days are over, numbers show, and they won’t be coming back, writes Pieter du Toit.
2019 broke DA’s momentum, and next year will be its biggest test yet
The DA's establishment as a viable, large opposition party has been one of democracy's biggest successes. But the 2019 election was nothing short of a disaster, and 2024 looms as the party's toughest test yet, writes Pieter du Toit.
Ethnic entrepreneurs Malema, EFF set to benefit from ANC decline
There is no doubt that the EFF has become a viable political project. It has survived four election cycles and could be poised to take advantage of the ANC's further decline, writes Pieter du Toit.
A flicker of life, but the IFP after Buthelezi faces tough task
Mangosuthu Buthelezi dominated the IFP for decades. Next year's election will be a test for a party that has, over the course of democracy, shrivelled, writes Pieter du Toit.
Numbers don't add up in opposition parties' quest to topple ANC
The Multi-Party Charter is a laudable and necessary opposition project seeking to topple the ANC. The numbers, however, don't seem to be in its favour, writes Pieter du Toit.
