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South African farmers are expected to harvest 19.3% less maize in the 2023/24 season compared to the previous one, the government's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said on Tuesday.
The CEC's latest summer crop forecast estimated the 2024 harvest at 13.26 million metric tonnes, down from the 16.43 million harvested the season before. The previous estimate on February 28 put the 2024 maize harvest at 14.36 million tonnes.
The harvest is expected to consist of 6.28 million tons of white maize, for human consumption, and 6.98 million tons of yellow maize, used mainly in animal feed.
Excessive heat and scant rains across SA in February have changed the outlook from positive to concerning for maize supplies at home and for neighbouring countries, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist for the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, previously told News24.
READ | SA and its neighbours brace for El Niño's wrath on maize production
From the summer months at the end of 2023 and into January this year, the calamitous forecasts that the El Niño weather system would result in drought-like conditions across large portions of SA’s important crop-growing regions proved to be untrue.
That was a relief for the outlook on food prices and inflation. But in a period of just four to five weeks, that’s shifted.
"The 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing. We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions," Sihlobo said. "Those good early-season rains led us to believe the country would have a decent harvest in the 2023/24 production season. But this view has now changed. We worry about possible poor harvests."
Additional reporting by News24.
